Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
