🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still